When It Rains It Floods

Posted by Expired Potato On June 08, 2017 0 comments

Coming Home To Something Unexpected

Life is unpredictable. When I came home tonight, something was off. The air felt strangely humid. And there was this weird noise coming from the back of the apartment. I turned on a light and investigated. What I found out caused disbelief which quickly turned into anger.

There's a fucking flood. How? Rewind nine hours. I was trying to brush my teeth but when I turned the tap on the water was only trickling out. Confused, I tried turning this knob to fix it. Nothing happened. I was going out anyways but I dropped by the management office on the way out. Apparently there was a leak somewhere and they had to shut the water off. No big deal I thought. Couldn't be more wrong.

Turns out the knob I turned wasn't a master knob that controlled the water flow like one of the knobs back home. It was an actual faucet. The water comes out like a sprinkler. Apparently there used to be a water heater or something there but the faucet didn't get removed with the heater. So while I was playing poker at Aria, that faucet became active when they turned on the water and was flooding my apartment.

Luckily the water came out slowly and the flooding was localized to a small area next to my bed. But a lot of my clothes got soaked and a corner of my bed got hit. My comforter, blanket and bed sheet all were partially soaked. Hung the blanket on the bathroom door, the sheet by the shower curtain and just laid out the comforter over the coffee table in the living room. The carpet by my bed was also completely flooded. I'll have to talk to management when I wake up and have them call someone in to extract the water.

If I'm unlucky and the carpet needs to be replaced I'll get charged for it. But whatever. A good night playing poker I win way more than it probably costs and a bad night playing poker I lose more than it probably costs. The variance of this situation is actually less than the variance of a night at Aria. It just SEEMS like a bigger deal than it actually is.

Fuck paying $40 + $10 Uber for a motel when they make you check out at 11 am and don't even have courtesy check out. This is Vegas what kind of non-local wakes up that early? Pillow was on the dry side of the bed and the apartment came with a couch. I'll be using an extra bed sheet as a blanket. Turned the AC off so I won't be cold. It won't be good quality sleep but tomorrow is my rest day from poker so being groggy won't affect my EV. It'll just affect the gym and the gym is not nearly as important as poker. :)

Can't complain too much. It's not even that big of an L. Tonight I was up $150. Breaking even instead would've been a bigger L. Breaking even this month so far instead of being up would've been a MUCH bigger L. Besides, it was a life experience and anger management level up. :) Hopefully within 24 hours everything will be back to normal. 

The Next Day



Fuck the gym today. Might even skip Judo. Cleaning lady came in with a huge vacuum and got most of the water out. But there was still some water left and the carpet was somewhat wet still. I wish she took her time to get 99% of the water out instead of 90%. I suggested letting the vacuum sit on each spot for 15 to 30 seconds instead of vacuuming it like you would a regular dirty carpet. It worked. Not perfect but much drier. I knew she was busy and it was my mess anyways so I told her to leave the vacuum and I did a more thorough job myself. If there's enough water left it will grow mold. Fuck getting lung cancer. Borrowed two big fans to air it out. Should be good now.

Colossus Weekend Grind



224 hours in. Haven't gotten sick of it. Still love sitting down at the tables and getting in spots. Still love the thrill of a huge pot. Still love fucking with my opponents' heads with my mouth. I'm really curious what goes on in their heads when I raise preflop then bet bet bet. OMG this stupid aggro mid 20s Asian just doesn't stop betting and raising. He's talking and laughing to make himself look calm. He doesn't have shit. I'm not folding top pair. Wtf how does he have a flush?! :)

My videos are now being done with PowerDirector. I'm on their 30 day trial. There's a clear difference between number of features on that and Windows Movie Maker. I can actually overlay images with PowerDirector, which allows me to visually display hands now instead of just talking about them.

This weekend the Colossus was running at the Rio. It's the lowest buy in bracelet event ($565) which attracts a TON of low stakes players to Vegas. Perfect time to play some cash. Of course playing the Colossus itself was an option. But the structure is so quick it's there's way too much luck involved. I still need to win at least another $3000 to be "allowed" to move up so I need to protect my bankroll. And that's if I have an aggressive bankroll strategy.


Weekly Hand Analysis


This week's hand analysis once again involves AK, which is starting to become my least favourite hand.  I'm playing 1/3 again at Aria. A fish makes it $15 in early position. My nails are not as pretty, but I look down at this.

Very nice hand to isolate the fish in position. I 3 bet it to $50. A somewhat tight passive player two seats to my left 4 bet shoves. Looks like she has about $200 total. The original raiser folds. I ask the dealer for an exact count. It's $207. That number rings a bell. Remember last week's hand analysis? That was a mess!

So I'm risking $157 more to win a pot of $1 + $3 + $15 + $50 + $207 = $276. I need 157 / (157 + 276) = 36% equity for a call to be +EV. Against an optimistic range, (QQ+, AK) I have it.

Against a tighter range, (KK+) I'm fucked.

4 betting ranges at 1/2 and 1/3 are heavily weighted towards KK+. This was a cold 4 bet (she 4 bet having not been involved in the hand prior to my 3 bet) which makes her range even more heavily weighted to KK+. There are few players at 1/2 and 1/3 that 4 bet QQ and AK unless very short stacked (< 50 big blinds). They are usually afraid of running into KK+ when they have those hands. There are even fewer players that 4 bet bluff with a hand like A5s (except for that 84 year old last month who cold 4 bet 77 and made me lay down TT. :O Either a maniac who's overplaying the shit out of 77 or a very smart 84 year old who knows how to take advantage of his age group's stereotype). If she was an aggressive player, she could easily have QQ, AK and sometimes even JJ or TT, which means I can confidently call. But she was somewhat passive which is the opposite of aggressive.

If folding is 0 EV, calling is probably gonna be -EV. We can figure out how -EV it is by calculating a weighted average. First we calculate the EV of a call for each range she can have. Then we assign a probability she has that range and do a weighted average. Let's assume that 1/4 of the time she has QQ+, AK and 3/4 of the time she has KK+.

EV (she has QQ+, AK) = (0.42) * ($276) + (0.58) * (-$157) = $24.86

EV (she has KK+) = (0.23) * ($276) + (0.77) * (-$157) = -$57.41

EV (overall given assumptions) = (0.25) * ($24.86) + (0.75) * (-$57.41) = -$36.84

In order words, calling is almost a $40 mistake compared to folding based on my assumptions. It's not a disaster, but it's a significant mistake. Often times in poker the spot will be overall -EV regardless of what action you take. For example folding would have an overall EV of -$50. Calling has an overall EV of worse than -$50. A solid poker player knows how to minimize the loss in these spots. I unfortunately did not minimize my loss in this spot. It's easy to say "lol AKs vs someone who doesn't even have 100 big blinds? Folding is just silly". That's probably the advice I'd get on twoplustwo if I posted this hand. But when you break it down there's no shame in folding AKs or even KK preflop if the math says fold. No one at 1/2 or 1/3 is gonna be exploiting me by starting to 4 bet A5s if I make these folds. In fact I'd be exploiting them by making these folds and refusing to pay them off.

Oh yeah, almost forgot to mention what happened. The stupid thought above goes through my head. LOLOL ace king suited she's got 70 big blinds you gonna fold bro? I look at her, shrug and say "I call". Usually people keep their hands face down until the river is dealt unless they flop or turn something super strong like a set. She lifts her cards off the felt right away, eager to show me. To quote Matt Damon, "I know before the cards are even turned over".

By the way, I was curious whether it would be correct to call KK, the second strongest starting hand in this game, based on these assumptions. The results were fucking shocking!

Versus QQ+, AK we good. Not surprising.

Versus KK+, KK doesn't have 35% equity, it has 23%! This is because if you have KK, there's only two kings left in the deck and therefore only one combo of KK. But there's four aces left in the deck and therefore all six combos of AA. So 1/7 of the time you're chopping with KK and 6/7 of the time, you're gonna have to get real lucky.

EV (she has QQ+, AK) = (0.57) * ($276) + (0.43) * (-$157) = $91.38

EV (she has KK+) = (0.23) * ($276) + (0.77) * (-$157) = -$57.41

EV (overall given assumptions) = (0.25) * ($91.38) + (0.75) * (-$57.41) = -$20.21

It's still -EV to call. Which means folding even the mighty KK, the second strongest starting hand in this game, in this scenario vs her would have been correct. Holy shit! Of course, versus someone who isn't passive, KK and AKs, AKo and QQ can be a snap call. It all depends on the player.


La Comida



I don't think I'm gonna be cutting anymore. Cooked one legit meal in the new apartment and it didn't even have vegetables. I'll try to be calorie aware but I'm here to enjoy myself not to worry. There's just way too much good food, cheap food and free food here. Like this sushi burrito. That's right. A sushi burrito. Somehow they managed to fuse two foods I love. If there's a curry version of that I'm never eating anything else again.

Ocean One is a great place to eat before playing poker. Their $3 beers tempt me every time I'm there. Unfortunately I can't drink and play poker. It's just a game but it's still business for me. Look at this $5 salmon salad. It's almost theft. If I'm really hungry, two entrees are $10. Like these wings and the southwest chicken salad.

This was probably one of the healthiest meals I ate in the last week.

Would you ever eat raw lamb? I hesitated at first. But fuck it it's Vegas. The quality was amazing, the portioning not so much. Even after getting some dope dessert, had to make myself a burrito that night.

And by make myself a burrito I meant pan fry it cause I don't have a microwave. It was so annoying and it took a full CSGO match to finish, turning it in between rounds. No idea why I didn't just bake it. I miss having a microwave. By the way, I'm no longer Silver Elite Master. Just a lowly Silver Elite now. Silver for life. :(

Fuck this apartment. I'm gonna find a better place to live. :)


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