One More Baby Step

Posted by Expired Potato On June 15, 2017 0 comments

The Wynn/Encore

The last baby step before 2/5 is 1/3 with a $500 max. Gotta head to the Wynn/Encore at the north part of The Strip for that. The poker room used to be at the Wynn, but it's now in the twin casino called Encore which is right beside it. I expected poker there to be tougher because of the higher max buy in. But it was even softer. At least on Friday and Saturday. The short session I played Monday night didn't have much good action. I need more exercise cause of the not so healthy food I've been eating. The high on Saturday was actually not triple digits so I decided to walk all the way up The Strip. It was very nostalgic passing by the casinos I used to play in. It was also humbling reflecting on my initial struggles here. Saturday night was a fun session. A lot of 3 betting from me cause I smelled weakness. The AQ hand was questionable though.

Nothing too exciting happened there Sunday and Monday. Tuesday the table was initially amazing. Had a drunk on my direct right but she lost all her money before I could take any. Twice. Then she got up and said "I'm going to 5/10". I hope for her sake she was kidding but she looked dead serious. Not sure how many thousands she lost that night but she probably woke up the next day with a lot of regrets.

Another fish who limp called a ton filled her seat. Unfortunately I went card dead and on a downward spiral. Took a walk to mentally reset and got back in the action. Not a lot happened. Except for the guy on the left spilling his coffee on my left leg and then somehow managing to spill his beer on my left leg again, which I forgot to mention in the video. You clumsy motherfucker! Good thing none of that splashed on my vest or hat. I would not have been happy.

It was 1 am and there were not many fish at my new table. When you're a poker player, sometimes you just gotta take the L and call it a night. I know I can win. I don't need to be leave up every night to prove that to myself.

Weekly Hand Analysis



If I'm doing something questionable at the tables, I should question it. Did I make a bad play with AQo by 3 betting it instead of calling or folding? And yes folding AQo to an under the gun 5x raise from a tight player is perfectly reasonable especially when out of position multiway.

Let's look at calling first. The pot is $64. It's $12 to call so I need at least 12 / (12 + 64) = 16% equity for a call to be +EV. If I give the under the gun raiser a strong range, the first caller a somewhat strong range and the last two callers a loose range, I barely meet that requirement.

But this is ignoring the $5 rake. It's also ignoring the fact that I will be out of position against four opponents. This makes it harder for me to realize all my equity because I will be forced to fold the best hand a lot. For example the preflop raiser will often continuation bet. Or the last player in position will take a stab at the pot. Let's say the flop is T64. AQ could be the best hand but out of position multiway I cannot continue versus a bet and sometimes a hand like QJ can bet me off it. There's also reverse implied odds. If the flop comes say QT8, how much am I liking my hand when one or two people start putting a lot of money into the pot? This is in contrast to a hand like JTs or 66 which have good implied odds since those hands can make strong hands like flushes, straights and sets which completely destroy hands like my top pair.

So clearly calling is not a great option and folding is better. But what about 3 betting? If a hand like AQo is played mostly for it's top pair value, it's better to 3 bet it to try to get heads up right? Against a loose range where they will 4 bet QQ+, AK and call a wide range facing the 3 bet absolutely. AQo has a big advantage.

Against a tight range where the calling range will be even tighter, I'm really hoping they fold. I'm basically turning AQo into a bluff because the range that calls has me beat.

In this spot, I'm turning AQo into a bluff versus these guys. The range pictured above is the range I expect them to call. By 3 betting to $95, I'm risking $92 to win a pot of $64. To be immediately +EV preflop, this needs to force a fold from all four of them 92 / (92 + 64) = 59% of the time. Is this reasonable? Let's find out.

If I give under the gun his raising range of 66+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ that's 78 combos taking into account my A and Q blockers. So he's gonna fold 99-66, ATs and KQs. That's only 24 + 3 + 3 = 30 combos. He's not even folding half the time. Obviously the other three will fold at a higher frequency because their ranges are wider but I need ALL FOUR OF THEM to fold 59% of the time. I already fucked up. :D

The original raiser folded, the first caller called and the last two folded as well. Heads up to a flop of 874 with the pot being $231 after rake. To win I probably have to bluff. I bet $95. Versus a weak opponent, a small bet in a big pot works just as fine as a standard sized bet. I'm risking $95 to win $231 so if he folds 95 / (95 + 231) = 29% of the time it's +EV. And realistically it needs to work even less often than that cause I can hit a Q or A on the turn and potentially get paid. Can he fold enough?

The flop doesn't hit QQ-TT, AJs+, AQo so he still has 39 combos. He needs to fold 29% of them which is 11 combos. Here it's a very +EV bluff since he can basically only continue with QQ-TT which means he folds 24 combos. And even with a hand like TT he's gonna be shitting himself cause I'm repping a bigger pair.

In conclusion, preflop I should've just folded. But as played, the flop bluff was a good move. He ended up tanking. I pretty much put him on TT and start talking to him to try to look strong. Does it work? If you haven't watched the Saturday video, it's the second last hand.

Back To The Kitchen



There's so much cheap food here. It's easy to let loose and say "fuck it I'm bulking". But this isn't really a vacation. This is my summer "internship". And unlike my actual summer internship back in 2013, I actually care about this one. In order to perform well I need to not only keep my technical skills sharp, I also maximize my edge in other ways.

The simplest way is to live healthy. Have I done a good job of that recently? Probably not. Barely cook and last week I was saying silly things like "fuck the gym". That's not the right attitude to have. Whether I hit the gym or said "fuck it I'll go tomorrow" will make a difference. Whether I had chicken, beans and broccoli or a chimichanga for lunch will make a difference at the tables. Whether I went to bed at 4 am or 2 am the night before will make a difference. If I'm out doing something worthwhile that's one thing. But if I'm still playing poker at 3 am on a Monday, unless I have a good reason to do so such as position on a big fish, it's better to just rack up earlier and call it a night.

Why am I even talking about this? In the last few days I've noticed some consequences. I've been waking up groggy and snoozing! Even though it's noon! Reminded me of 2015 when I didn't take care of my body whatsoever. Everyday in 2015 I woke up feeling like that. It's time to make a few adjustments. Starting with this.

And then this. Time to start cooking again. Legit food this time. Actual chicken like the extra spicy chicken in that pan. Not chicken strips at 4 am.


And also...maybe the gym more than two or three times a week. When I was doing Stronglifts it was three times a week with at least one rest day in between workouts. Now that I'm doing a more flexible workout plan, I can do high intensity interval training, take a class or even attempt swimming in between workouts and have ONE rest day a week. That's basically what I did in early 2013 when I cut 35 pounds in six months. 2013 was probably the healthiest I've ever felt. It's time to start living like that again.


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