I Dun Goofed

Posted by Expired Potato On June 22, 2017 0 comments

The Price Of Stupidity


Have you ever done something completely retarded? So horribly retarded that once the dust settled, you're thinking was I seriously fucking retarded enough to have done that for the next half hour? I've done more than my fair share of retarded things in the past. But this one is definitely a contender for the top spot. 

It's 3:30 am Sunday morning. I'm at the Wynn playing 1/3 with direct position on a loud and obnoxious loose aggressive fish. In a straddled pot he limps in and I raise $26 AK. He calls. Flop is J42. He bets $20 into me. I call. Turn is a K. He bets $50. I call. River is a 5. He bets $150. I call. He flips over A4. Somehow I think he has 44 and muck my AK. By the time I realize my mistake, it's too late. My hand is dead. I LOSE A $500 POT THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN MINE HAD I FLIPPED MY HAND OVER!!! And to make it worse, I lose it to the obnoxious loudmouth at the table I'm targeting. Overwhelmed by tilt and unable to continue playing, I instantly rack up and leave.

I have no idea how I could have made that mistake. It wasn't a vision issue. He was on my direct right and his cards were two feet from my face. Maybe it was exhaustion. Maybe it was cause I was hungry. Maybe it was both. Whatever it was, I am DEVASTATED that someone like myself with almost a thousand hours of live poker experience could make such a silly mistake like this. I've very proud of how much I've developed as a poker player during my time here in Vegas and something like this happens. It's soul crushing. Despite still being up $900 for the night I feel like total shit right now. Total shit. I don't remember the last time I felt like total shit. It was probably a year ago. I feel some fucked up combination of disbelief, anger and shame.

One of my personal flaws is having trouble forgiving myself after making big mistakes. I learned that about myself at work. I would fuck something up in a stupid way, get yelled at by my manager and feel like shit. But then he would tell me to hit the reset button and get back out there. It doesn't matter how frustrated or pissed at myself I feel. As a server my job back home is to be charming and entertaining. If that involves slapping on a poker face and smiling when I want to smash a window it's part of the job.

This situation reminds me of that except ten times worse. I need to hit the reset button and move forward. This isn't work. Well it kind of is. But unlike real work, I decide my schedule. If I still wake up feeling like shit, I have the luxury of being able to take the day off. Maybe this is an opportunity for me to work on that personal flaw. And I definitely do need to work on it. When I get back to the real world, I'll be in situations where I can't just pause the clock cause I'm feeling a certain way. I'm looking for a crumb of positivity while I'm in a dark hole of negativity and I think I found it. Already feel a little better. Writing this up helps vent the anger too.

I guess everything's got a silver lining if you look hard enough. 

Boxing And Tae Kwon Do


Lifting doesn't make you fit. It doesn't make you tough. It makes you look better than you looked before you started lifting, helps you carry groceries and move furniture. That's about it. I went to one boxing class and all I was thinking was man lifting is some choirboy pussy shit compared to this. That shit was crazy! Shadow boxing with some mixed in drills. Was the coach a drill instructor in the Marines?!

Drop! Jump! Mountain climbers! Shadow box! Drop! Sit ups! I didn't say stop! Get up! Drop! Get up! Drop! Get up! Get up faster!

Daaaaaayum chill bro. My arms are still sore even now four hours after. Got ridiculously hungry from that. But still stayed for the Tae Kwon Do class right after. Thankfully it wasn't as intense. Way more relaxed. We just practiced different kicks and stretched. I've been eating pretty clean, other than this.

I felt like I've burned a million calories tonight. Couldn't decide between a sushi burrito or a chimichanga. Why not go above and beyond and get both? I earned it. Their machine broke and they can't make me a sushi burrito? :O Poke bowl and chimichanga plate it is. Ate it all.

Biggest Pot Of My Life

The mistakes live players make are just ridiculous sometimes. There was a weirdo at the Wynn humming at the table nonstop. I knew he was gonna be a donk before I saw him raise almost every pot preflop. Got a seat change on his direct left. While I was winning small to medium pots and slowly building my $500 buy in to over $900, the donk got lucky three times and stacked the guy on his right for $500 each time. He tried to hide his tilt but to anyone observing him carefully it was obvious. What happens in this hand is a prime example of why you should always go for a walk or call it a night if you're tilting.

The Rio

How have I been in Vegas over six weeks without having been to The Rio? I still end up going to the wrong spot! I'll be sure to go to the actual convention center next time and rail some of the WSOP action as well as play in the cash games. Regardless, it was still a fun session though it was brief. I get into a verbal confrontation with a douchebag. Then I get into a couple poker confrontations with him. The table is on my side both hands. I have two opportunities to take all his money. Everyone wants me to do that so that he hopefully leaves the table.


Meeting some people for dinner on Freemont. Perfect opportunity to play at the Golden Nugget again! It's a 1/2 game so it's smaller than the 1/3 I've been used to for nearly a month. But here's the fun part - the max buy in is uncapped. You can bring $50k to the table if you want, not that there's much point to bringing that much. People generally buy in for $200 - $500 which means it plays much deeper and with larger average pots for a 1/2 game.

There's a pretty decent music culture downtown. There was a guy eating his bass like Jimi Hendrix did to his guitar during a Hey Joe solo. It was dope. There was a really cool band that did a cover of Iron Man and Rebel Yell. Wish I could've stayed longer and listened to them some more. There was also a guy I just had to high five cause of a sign he was holding. :)

Weekly Hand Analysis

Another stupid AK hand. I hate AK! Playing uncapped 1/2 at the Golden Nugget. Folded to me on the button and I make it $8 with AKo. The small blind is short stacked (has $185) and decides to 3 bet to $36. The sizing is very big given my the size of my raise. Makes me think he's less likely to have KK+. Since I block those hands anyways I'll give him two combos each of KK and AA instead of three (as in he's only 2/3 as likely to have those hands). Of course he can certainly have QQ or AK. He can also have JJ or even TT. TT is less likely. I'll give him half the combos of TT (so three). I'll also give him 87s since he can also be 3 betting as a bluff even though it's unlikely.

So I can either call and take a flop in position or shove. If I call though I'll only flop a pair a third of the time and even if I do I might not stack him and occasionally I'll even end up doubling him up when say he has AA and the flop is king high or he has QQ and it's a KQx flop. I think shoving is a better option because I do have fold equity. He's obviously folding 87s if he's 3 betting that. He's also not calling TT and he could fold JJ some % of the time. Here's his overall 3 betting range given my assumptions.

Here's his calling range vs a shove given my assumption that he folds 87s and TT and that he folds JJ half the time.

So he's only folding 10/30 = 33% of the time which is not super often. But it's OK. I'm not expecting him to fold often. I just need him to fold sometimes for this move to be +EV. Like before, I'm gonna consider folding 0 EV.

1/3 of the time when I shove, he will just fold and I'll win the $46 pot uncontested. The other 2/3 of the time, he will call. This is how much equity I have against his range when that happens. About 40%.

With the $5 rake, I pay $177 to win $367 40% of the time and $0 60% of the time. If he calls my EV is 0.4 * $367 - $177 = -$30.2

My overall EV is (1/3) * $46 + (2/3) * -$30.2 = -$4.80

Holy shit! I wasn't expecting that! Even if he folds 1/3 of the time my EV is still negative and folding is better than shoving. Again AKo does not do well against a strong range. What seemed like a trivial shove for less than 100 big blinds actually turned out to be a mistake!

Against the small blind's big sizing, if his range is strong which is it, nothing wrong with folding if calling is also not a good option. Against a smaller 3 bet like $26 instead of $36, flatting and playing a pot in position would've been fine. Shoving as a bluff requires better fold equity in addition to equity when called to work effectively. Although in this case my equity when called is great, the fold equity is just not good enough.

Chip Porn

Been a while since I posted chip porn or curry. One more of these type of nights and I'll shot taking 2/5 no problem.


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